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Paul Tudor Jones:完美的失败<转自长阳>  

2009-10-20 13:19:14|  分类: 转帖 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Paul Tudor Jones:完美的失败
原文链接:Paul Tudor Jones – Failure Speech June 2009
作者:Paul Tudor Jones
译者:Esther

版权声明:本文可以任意转载,转载时请务必保持作者、译者署名的完整性。

巴克利学校毕业演讲致辞,2009年6月10日

When I was asked to give the commencement address to a graduating class of 9th graders, I jumped at the chance. You see, I have four teenagers of my own and I feel like this is the point in my life when I am supposed to tell them something profound. So thank you Buckley community for giving me this opportunity. I tried this speech out on them last night and am happy to report that none of them fell asleep until I was three quarters done.

当我应邀对9年级学生进行毕业演讲时,我欣然接受。你看,我自己有四个十几岁的孩子,我觉得是时候对他们讲述意义深远的事情。所以,感谢大家,巴克利社区给我这个机会。昨天晚上,我对着他们试讲了一番,很高兴直到我进行了四分之三时,才有人打瞌睡。

When composing this message I searched my memory for my same experience back in 1969 when I was sitting right where you are. I realized that I could hardly remember on
e single speaker from my junior high or high school days. Now that could be my age. I’m old enough now that some days I can’t remember how old I am. But it could also have been a sign of the times. Remember, I was part of the student rebellion, and we did not listen to anything that someone over 30 said because they were just too clueless. Or so we thought.

在编写这篇文章时,我翻开了1969的回忆,当时我正处在你们这个年代。我意识到我基本上记不起初中或高中时代的任何一位演讲者。当然那也可能是因为我年纪到了。我年纪太大了,有时甚至不记得自己的年龄。当然那也可能是时代标记。要知道,我当年也玩逆反,任何30岁以上的人的讲话,我们都听不进去,觉得那太无厘头。或者我们认为如此。

Anyway, as I sat there considering this speech further, I suddenly had a flashback of the on
e speaker who I actually did remember from youthful days. He was a Shakespearean actor who came to our school to extol the virtues of Shakespeare. He started out by telling us that Shakespeare was not about poetry or romance or love, but instead, was all about battle, and fighting and death and war. Then he pulled out a huge sword which he began waving over the top of his head as he described various bloody conflicts that were all part and parcel of Shakespeare’s plays. Now being a 15-year old testosterone laden student at an all boys school, I thought this was pretty cool. I remember thinking, “Yea, this guy gets it. Forget about the deep meaning and messages in the words, let’s talk about who’s getting the blade.”

不过当我进一步考虑这次演讲时,我突然回忆起我从年轻时就一直记得的一位演讲家。他是位莎士比亚作品演员,来我们学校为莎翁歌功颂德。他说,莎翁其实并非关乎诗歌、关乎浪漫,其实质都是战役,战斗、死亡和战争。然后他拔出一把超大的宝剑,一边讲莎翁戏剧里各种血腥冲突,一边在头顶挥舞着他的宝剑。当时我是男校里一位充满睾丸激素的15岁学生,我觉得那个场面太酷了。我记得当时想,“哟,这个家伙有两下子。别管文字中的深刻含义和信息,让我们谈谈谁与争锋。”

As you can see, I have a similar sword which I am going to stop waving over my head now, because A) I think you are permanently scarred, and B) the headmaster looks like he is about to tackle me and C) some of you, I can tell, are way too excited about this sword, and you’re scaring me a little.

你们瞧,我也有一把类似的宝剑,我准备不再在我的头上挥舞,因为A)我觉得你们会被吓着,B)校长好像要过来揍我,C)我看得出你们当中有些人对于这把宝剑太感兴趣,你们倒是把我给吓着了。

I’m here with you young men today because your parents wanted me to speak to you about service—that is, serving others and giving back to the broader community for the blessings that you have received in your life. But that is a speech for a later time in your life. Don’t get me wrong, serving others is really, really imp
ortant. It truly is the secret to happiness in life. I swear to God. Money won’t do it. Fame won’t do it. Nor will sex, drugs, homeruns or high achievement. But now I am getting preachy.

今天我在这里,是因为你们的家长希望我能对你们讲讲服务——即为他人服务,为你们人生已经得到的祝福而回报更大的社区。不要误会我,为他人服务确实确实很重要。它的确是幸福生活的秘密。我向上帝发誓。钱无法让你幸福。名声无法让你幸福。性、毒品、本垒或更高成就都不会让你更幸福。不过现在我的话变得有点说教意味了。

Today, I want to talk to you about the dirtiest word that any of you 9th graders know. It’s a word that is so terrible that your parents won’t talk about it; your teachers won’t talk about it; and you certainly don’t ever want to dwell on it. But this is a preparatory school, and you need to be prepared to deal with this phenomenon because you will experience it. That is a guarantee. Every single on
e of you will experience it not once but multiple times, and every adult in this room has had to deal with this in its many forms and manifestations. It’s the “F” word.

今天,我想告诉你任何9年级学生所知道的最肮脏的词。这个词很可怕,家长不愿意谈论;老师也不愿意谈论;你当然也不愿意谈论。但这是预科学校,你需要为此现象而准备,因为你终将经历它。那是毫无疑问的事情。你们中的每个人都会经历它,而且不只一次,是很多次,而这个房间里的每位成人都必须用各种形式和表现与此打交道。这是F开头的单词。

FAILURE. Failure that is so mortifying and so devastating that it makes you try to become invisible. It makes you want to hide your face, your soul, your being from everyone else because of the shame. Trust me, boys—if you haven’t already tasted that, you will. I am sure most of you here already have. AND IT IS HARD. I know this firsthand, but I also know that failure was a key element to my life’s journey.

失败(Failture)。失败是如此压抑,如此具有破坏性,它让你变成隐形人。让你因羞辱而想遮掩自己的颜面、灵魂,躲避任何其他人。相信我,孩子们——如果还没有尝试这滋味,你最终会尝到的。我相信你们大多数已经尝过了。这非常难受。我有亲身体会,但我也知道失败是我人生旅途的关键元素。

My first real failure was in 1966 in the 6th grade. I played on our basketball team, and I was the smallest and youngest kid on the team. It was the last game of the season and I was the on
ly player on the squad that had not scored a point all season. So in the second half the coach directed all the kids to throw me the ball when I went in, and for me to shoot so that I would score. The problem was that Coach Clark said it loud enough that every person in the stands could hear it as well as every member of the opposing team. Going into the fourth quarter, our team was well ahead, Coach Clark inserted me and thus, began the worst eight minutes of my life up until that point. Every time I got the ball, the entire other team would rush towards me, and on top of that, that afternoon I was the greatest brick layer the world had ever seen. The game ended. I had missed five shots, and the other team erupted in jubilation that I had not scored. I ran out of the gym as fast as I could only to bump into two of the opposing team’s players who proceeded to laugh and tease and ridicule me. I cried and hid in the bathroom. Well, that passed, and I kept trying team sports, but I was just too small to really compete. So in the 10th grade, I took up boxing where suddenly everyone was my size and weight. I nearly won the Memphis Golden Gloves my senior year in high school and did win the collegiate championship when I was 19. Standing in the middle of that ring and getting that trophy, I still remember looking around for those two little kids who had run me into that bathroom back in the 6th grade, because I was going to knock their blocks off. That’s one problem with failure. It can stay with you for a very long time.

我的第一次真正失败发生在1966年,我上6年级时。我在篮球队,是队里最瘦小最年幼的孩子。当时是该赛季最后一场比赛,我是队里整个赛季都没有得分的唯一队员。所以在后半场当我走进时,教练授意所有孩子向我投球,这样我就能够投篮得分了。问题是克拉克教练说得声音太大,不仅观众席的每个人都能听到,就连对手们也都听见了。进入第四节时,我们队都遥遥领先,克拉克教练把我安插进去,从而,我人生中最糟糕的8分钟开始了。每当我拿到球时,对方所有人都会冲向我,除此之外,那个下午,我还是有史以来最伟大的水泥匠。比赛结束了。我错过了5次投蓝,对方开始庆祝我没有投进球。我尽快地跑出体育场,可却遇到了对方的两名队员,跟着嘲笑讽刺挖苦我。我哭了,躲在洗手间。好在,那都过去,我继续参加各种运动队,不过我太小不能真正比赛而已。当10年级,我参加拳击时,突然之间周围每个人的都跟我一般高一样重。高中高年级时,我险些获得孟菲斯金手套奖,而19岁时,我确实获得了学员冠军。站在那个台子中间得到那个奖杯时,我记得还在四处张望,寻找6年级时把我逼到洗手间的那两个孩子,因为我要把他们击败。这就是失败的一个问题。它会影响你很久很久。

The next time the dragon of failure reared his ugly head was in 1978. I was working in New Orleans for on
e of the greatest cotton traders of all time, Eli Tullis. Now, New Orleans is an unbelievable city. It has the Strawberry Festival, the Jazz Festival, the Sugar Bowl, Mardi Gras, and just about every other excuse for a party that you can ever imagine. Heck, in that town, waking up was an excuse to party. I was still pretty fresh out of college, and my mentality, unfortunately, was still firmly set on fraternity row. It was a Friday morning in June, and I had been out literally all night with a bunch of my friends. My job was to man the phone all day during trading hours and call cotton prices quotes from New York into Mr. Tullis’ office. Around noon, things got quiet on the New York floor, and I got overly drowsy. The next thing I remember was a ruler prying my chin off my chest, and Mr. Tullis calling to me, “Paul. Paul.” My eyes fluttered opened and as I came to my senses, he said to me, “Son, you are fired.” I’d never been so shocked or hurt in my life. I literally thought I was going to die for I had just been sacked by an iconic figure in my business.

失败之魔再次抬起他丑陋的头是在1978年。我当时在新奥尔良为有史以来最伟大的棉花交易商之一艾里·突里斯工作。现在,新奥尔良成了传奇城市,这里有草莓节、爵士节、Sugar Bowl, 大斋戒以及你能够想象的任何聚会。我当时大学刚毕业,很不幸,我的意识形态仍然牢牢地定在兄弟会上。那是六月的一个星期五,我整夜与一伙朋友流连忘返。我的工作是在交易时间守住电话,把纽约的棉花报价通过电话告诉突里斯先生的办公室。中午时,纽约交易厅那边变得相当安静,我又非常困。我记得的下一件事情就是有人揪着我的下巴,都快要揪掉了,突里斯先生冲着我喊,“保罗。保罗。”我的眼睛朦朦胧胧地睁开,头脑清醒后,他对我说,“小伙子,你被解雇了。”我一生中从未如此震惊如此受伤。我真得以为我要死了,因为我竟然被自己的职业偶像人物炒了鱿鱼。

My shame turned into anger. I was not angry at Mr. Tullis for he was right. I was angry at myself. But I knew I was not a failure, and I swore that I was going to prove to myself that I could be a success. I called a friend and secured a job on the floor of the New York Cotton Exchange and moved to the City. Today, I will put my work ethic up against anybody’s on Wall Street. Failure will give you a tattoo that will stay with you your whole life, and sometimes it’s a really good thing. On
e other side note, to this day, I’ve never told my parents that I got fired. I told them I just wanted to try something different. Shame can be a lifetime companion for which you better prepare yourself.

我的耻辱变成了愤怒。我不是生突里斯先生的气,因为他没错。我是跟自己生气。但我知道我不是失败的人,我发誓我会证明自己成功。我给朋友打电话,在纽约棉花交易厅找到份工作,搬到纽约。今天,我的职业道德可以与华尔街任何人的职业道德相匹敌。失败会给你纹身,会终身陪伴你,有时,这其实是好事。另一方面,时至即日,我都没有告诉我父母我遭到解雇。我告诉他们我只不过想尝试不同的东西。羞辱可以是让你更好地准备自己的终身伴侣。

Now, there are two types of failure you will experience in life. The first type is what I just described and comes from things you can control. That is the worst kind. But there is another form of failure that will be equally devastating to you, and that is the kind beyond your control. This happened to me in 1982. I had met a very lovely young Harvard student from Connecticut, dated her for two years then asked her to marry me right after she graduated from college. We set a date; we sent out the invitations; and all was fantastic until on
e month before the wedding when her father called me. He said, “Paul, my daughter sat me down this afternoon, and she doesn’t know how to tell you this, but she is really unhappy and thinks it’s time for you two to take a break.” At first I thought he was joking because he was a very funny guy. Then he said, “No, she is serious about this.” I thought to myself, “Oh, my God, I am being dumped at the altar.” I’m from Tennessee. Getting dumped at the altar was the supreme social embarrassment of that time. It was a big deal. When all my family and friends found out, they were ready to re-start the Civil War on the spot. I had to remind them that the last Civil War didn’t go so well for our side, and I didn’t like our chances in a rematch. The reality was that I was a 26-year old knucklehead, and since all my friends were getting married, I kind of felt it was time for me to do the same thing. And that was the worst reason in the world to get married. I actually think she understood that and to a certain extent spared me what would have been a very tough marriage. Instead, I’ve had an incredible marriage for twenty years to a wonderful wife, and we have four kids that I love more than anything on Earth. Some things happen to you that at the time will make you feel like the world is coming to an end, but in actuality, there is a very good reason for it. You just can’t see it and don’t know it. When one door closes, another will open, but standing in that hallway can be hell. You just have to persevere. Quite often that dragon of failure is really chasing you off the wrong road and on to the right one.

生活中你将经历两种挫败。一种是我刚刚描述的,来自你可以控制的事情。那是最糟糕的情况。还有一种失败形式也同样令人幻灭,而且完全不在你的控制中。1982年,我经历了这样的事情。我遇到一位来自康涅狄格州的哈佛女生,超可爱的,跟她约会了两年,然后她刚一毕业,我就向她求婚。我们定了日子,四处发请帖,一切都极其美妙,直到婚礼前一个月,她父亲给我打电话。他说,“保罗,今天下午我女儿让我坐下,她不知道如何跟你讲,但她真得很不开心,觉得你们两个应该分手。”一开始,我还以为他在开玩笑,因为他特逗。然后他说,“不,她可是认真的。”我对自己说,“哦,我的上帝,我竟然在祭坛边被抛弃。”我来自田纳西。在祭坛边被抛弃是当时最让人尴尬的际遇。那可是件大事。当我所有家人和朋友都知道后,他们马上就要重新掀起内战。我不得不提醒他们最后的内战对我们这一边很不利,而且我们在重赛中的机会也不容乐观。事实是,当时我是个26岁的傻瓜,我所有的朋友都结婚了,所以我觉得好像我也该作同样的事情。而那正是世界上最糟糕的结婚理由。实际上,我觉得她理解这一点,而且在某种程度上,为我省去了一个非常艰难的婚姻。现在,我拥有20年妙不可言的婚姻,有一个超级贤惠的妻子,有四个比地球上任何东西都更值得爱的孩子。有些事情发生的当时让你觉得世界末日就要来临,但其实背后总有个正当的理由。只是当时已惘然。当一扇门关上时,另一扇就会随之开启,只不过站在两道门之间时可能宛如身处地狱。你不得不坚持。通常,失败的恶魔是将你追逐出错误路线,逼上正道。
By now you are thinking, how much longer is this loser going to keep on talking. My kids are all teenagers, and whenever I’m telling them something I think is important, they often wonder the same thing. But the main point I want you to take away today is that some of your greatest successes are going to be the children of failure. This touches upon the original reason I was invited here today. In 1986, I adopted a class of Bedford Stuyvesant 6th graders and promised them if they graduated from high school, I would pay for their college. For those of you who don’t know, Bed-Stuy is one of New York City’s toughest neighborhoods. Even the rats are scared to go there at night. Statistically about 8% of the class I adopted would graduate from high school, so my intervention was designed to get them all into college. For the next six years, I did everything I could for them. I spent about $5,000 annually per student taking them on ski trips, taking them to Africa, taking them to my home in Virginia on the weekends, having report card night, hiring a counselor to help coordinate afternoon activities and doing my heartfelt best to get them ready for college. Six years later, a researcher from Harvard contacted me and asked if he could study my kids as part of an overall assessment of what then was called the “I Have a Dream” Program. I said sure. He came back to me a few months later and shared some really disturbing statistics. 86 kids that I had poured my heart and soul into for six years were statistically no different than kids from a nearby school that did not have the services our afterschool program provided. There was no difference in graduation rates, dropout rates, academic scores, teenage pregnancies, and the list went on. The only thing that we managed to do was get three times as many of our kids into college because we were offering scholarships whereas the other schools were not. But in terms of preparing these kids for college, we completely and totally failed. Boy, did this open my eyes. That was the first real-time example for me of how intellectual capital will always trump financial capital. In other words, I had the money to help these kids, but it was useless because I didn’t have the brains to help them. I had tried to succeed with sheer force of will and energy and financial resources. I learned that this was not enough. What I needed were better defined goals, better metrics, and most importantly, more efficient technologies that would enable me to achieve those goals. What that whole experience taught me was that starting with kids at age 12 was 12 years too late. An afterschool program was actually putting a band-aid on a much deeper structural issue, and that was that our public education system was failing us. So in 2000, along with the greatest educator I knew, a young man named Norman Atkins, we started the Excellence Charter School in Bedford Stuyvesant for boys. We set the explicit goal of hiring the best teachers with the greatest set of skills to be the top performing school in the city. Now that was an ambitious goal but last year in 2008, Excellence ranked #1 out of 543 public schools in New York City for reading and math proficiency for any third and fourth grade cohort, and our school was 98% African American boys. We never would have done that had I not failed almost 15 years earlier.

现在你可能想,这个失败者还要继续唠叨多久。我的孩子们都十几岁了,每当我跟他们讲我认为重要的事情,他们都会想同样的事情。但今天我想让你们记住的要点是你们某些最伟大的成绩将会成为失败之子。这其实是我今天应邀来这里的根本原因。1986年,我认领了Bedford Stuyvesant 6年级的一个班,向他们承诺,如果他们能够高中毕业,我将供他们上大学。可能你们有人还不知道,Bed-Stuy是纽约最混乱的社区。晚上连老鼠都不敢去那里。据统计,我认领的班上有8%的学生将从高中毕业,所以我的介入就是让他们全都上大学。接下来的6年里,我为他们做了我力所能及的所有事情。我每年为每位学生花5,000美元,带他们去滑雪,去非洲,周末带他们到我弗吉尼亚的家里,举办成绩汇报之夜,雇佣顾问帮助协调下午的活动,尽我所能地让他们上大学。六年后,一位哈佛研究者联系到我,问我他能不能将我的孩子们作为“我有一个梦想”项目整体评估的一部分。我说,当然没问题。几个月后,他又回到我身边,分享了一些让人真得很头疼的数据。我花了六年心血的86个孩子与周围学校没有校外服务的孩子别无二致。毕业率、辍学率、学习成绩、少女怀孕等数据都没有分别。我们唯一能够做到的事情是我们的孩子考大学的比率是别人的三倍,而那不过是因为我们提供了奖学金,而其他学校没有。但是,说到让这些孩子上大学,我们彻头彻尾地失败了。孩子们,这是不是让我开眼了?这可是第一次实时范例,让我了解人力资本如何战胜金融资本。换言之,我有钱帮助这些孩子,可因为我没有脑力来帮助他们,所以仍然徒劳无益。我尝试用纯意志力、能量、金融资源来成功。我发现这是不够的。我需要的是更明确的目标,更好的标准,最重要的是,更有效的技术,让我能够达成这些目标。整个经验给我的教训是等孩子12岁才开始,已经晚了12年。课外项目不过是给积重难返的结构问题贴一个创可贴,而那正是公立教育失败的地方。所以在2000年,我和我所知道的最伟大的教育家——名为诺曼·阿特金斯的年轻人一起在Bedford Stuyvesant为男生们开办了优秀特许学校。我们制定了明确的目标,聘用最好的老师,他们有最出色的技能,让我们学校成为城中最棒的。虽说那是个远大的志向,去年即2008年,优秀特许学校在纽约543所公立学校任何三年级和四年级学生中,阅读和数学能力都独占鳌头,而我们学校可有98%的非洲裔美籍男生。若非我15年前失败过,我们可永远别指望能做到这些。

So here is the point: you are going to meet the dragon of failure in your life. You may not get into the school you want or you may get kicked out of the school you are in. You may get your heart broken by the girl of your dreams or God forbid, get into an accident beyond your control. But the point is that everything happens for a reason. At the time it may not be clear. And certainly the pain and the shame are going to be overwhelming and devastating. But just as sure as the sun comes up, there will come a time on the next day or the next week or the next year, when you will grab that sword and point it at that dragon and tell him, “Be gone, dragon. Tarry with me and I will cut your head off. For I must find the destination God and life hold in store for me!” Young men of Buckley, good luck on your journey…..

所以,关键在于:你们将遇到生命中的失败魔王。可能你进不了自己想上的学校,或者被自己所在的学校踢了出来。可能你被梦中情人伤透了心,或者上帝禁止你那么做,或者在你完全无力掌控的情况下遭遇事故。但问题是,每件事情都不会无缘无故地发生。只是当时很惘然而已。而且,伤痛也好,羞耻也好,肯定会让你觉得无力支持,让你肝肠寸断。但是,正如太阳会升起,终会有那么一个时刻,不论是第二天,下周还是第二年,你会挥舞着宝剑,直指魔鬼,正告他,“魔鬼,滚开。胆敢和我纠结,我就把你的头砍下来。因为我必须找到上帝和生活为我保存的目的地!”巴克利的年轻人哪,祝你们一路顺风……
Paul Tudor Jones II Interview 
and Our Comments
Paul Tudor Jones is a legendary commodity trader.  Below is his interview and our comments.

Interview with Paul Tudor Jones II 
(Abridged)
by Joel Ramin
January 13, 2000

Paul Tudor Jones II is the president and founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, and was featured in Jack D. Schwagers classic "Market Wizards". This is an edited transcript from the interview, which was held at Paul Jones's office in Greenwich, Connecticut on January 13, 2000. 

Q: Can you briefly describe your background? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I went to high school at Memphis University school. My father went to Virginia Law School so he steered me to the University of Virginia. I went to Virginia from 1972 to 1976, majored in economics and had a great time. I really loved UVa. I graduated and went to work for Eli Tullis who was a Virginia graduate from New Orleans. He was a cotton speculator, maybe the biggest cotton speculator, and he gave me a job on the former New York cotton exchange and I began literally two weeks after I graduated from school. That's how I got into the futures markets. 

Q: What sparked your original interest in trading? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I went to New York and saw the floor of the commodities exchange and there was such an energy level there and so much excitement that I knew that was the place for me. I've always liked act
ion and the exchange seemed like a perfect home for me. 

Q: When did you decide you wanted to run a fund? 

Paul Tudor Jones: In 1976 I started working on the floor as a clerk and then I became a broker for E.F. Hutton. In 1980 I went strictly on my own as what they called a local and did that for about two and a half years and had two and a half wonderfully 

profitable years, but I really got bored. I applied to Harvard Business School, got accepted and was about to go. I literally was packed up to go and then I thought, 'this is crazy', because for what I'm doing here, they're not going to teach me anything. This skill set is not something that they teach in business school. So I didn't go, I stayed, but I was really bored because there wasn't the personal interaction that was something that I craved and having colleagues and being in a clean atmosphere and that was when I started my fund. All through growing up I've been involved in team sports and fraternities and in school I was involved in a whole variety of activities all of which were team oriented and when I was on my own I was printing money every month, but I wasn't getting the psychic satisfaction from it 

Q: How would you describe your general investment philosophy? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think I am the single most conservative investor on earth in the sense that I absolutely hate losing money. My grandfather told me at a very early age that you are on
ly worth what you can write a check for tomorrow, so the concept of having my net worth tied up in a stock a la Bill Gates, though God almighty it would be a great problem to have, it would be something that's just anathema to me and that's one reason that I've always liked the futures market so much, because you can generally get liquid and be in cash in literally the space of a few minutes. So that always appealed to me because I could always be liquid very quickly if I wanted to. I'd say that my investment philosophy is that I don't take a lot of risk, I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don't ever let them get into your pocket - that means there's no reason to leverage substantially. There's no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities. 

Q: How do you measure your performance? 

Paul Tudor Jones: You've got to look at good traders historically. If a trader can on average annually deliver two to three times their worst draw down, then that's a very good track record, and I'd say that that's what I try to do. If I thought that for the funds that I managed that 10% would be the worst that I would tolerate in a given year then hopefully I'd annualize two or three times that and that's probably what I've done. Maybe a little below that in the '90's and a little above that in the '80's. 

Q: What's your competitive advantage as a trader? 

Paul Tudor Jones: The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge. Because I think there are certain situations where you can absolutely understand what motivates every buyer and seller and have a pretty good picture of what's going to happen. And it just requires an enormous amount of grunt work and dedication to finding all possible bits of information. 

You pick an instrument and there's whole variety of benchmarks, things that you look at when trading a particular instrument whether it's a stock or a commodity or a bond. There's a fundamental information set that you acquire with regard to each particular asset class and then you overlay a whole host of technical indicators and that's how you make a decision. It doesn't make any difference whether it's pork bellies or Yahoo. At the end of the day, it's all the same. You need to understand what factors you need to have at your disposal to develop a core competency to make a legitimate investment decision in that particular asset class. And then at the end of the day, the most imp
ortant thing is how good are you at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control. 

Q: Can you give an example? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Certainly. The on
e on a percentage basis that's been the most profitable for me was the crash of 1987. There was a tremendous embedded derivatives accident waiting to happen in the crash of '87 because there was something in the market that time called portfolio insurance that essentially meant that when stocks started to go down it was going to create more selling because the people who had written these derivatives would be forced to sell on every down-tick. So it was a situation where you knew that if you ever got to a point where the market started to go down that the selling would actually cascade instead of dry up because of the measure of these derivative instruments that had been written. And in the crash of '87 you had an overvalued market and you also finally had a situation where every down-tick would create more selling and I think I understood the dynamics of that. The crash was something that was imminently forecastable to somebody that understood the measure of derivatives and how large they had grown in such a relatively short period of time and the impact that it would have on a relatively unknowing and na'e market. And the same exact thing happened in 1990 in Japan. 

Q: So what is your opinion of the US equity markets now? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Clearly there are parts of the US equity markets that we've never seen anything like it anywhere in modern times in terms of valuation. The question is what's the trigger event that gets you to mean revert and whereas you had specific derivative inspired events in 1987, I don't see that now. So how long can these levels of overvaluation persist? I would think rather than seeing any type of really sharp break, what you might see prospectively is something that looks a lot more like '68 to '73 did where you had big rolling corrections and rotations and a market that doesn't really make any upside progress but with a lot of volatility that traverses big ranges. 

Q: Do you have any specific catalysts that you're looking for? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think you're finally getting interest rates at a level where they're extraordinarily negative for equities. You look at every bear market and they've always basically occurred because of an up-tick in inflation and an up-tick in interest rates. We're definitely at a point where rates are high enough where they're going to have a big impact on equities. When you look at the volatility we've had in the past month in the NASDAQ for instance, every time I've seen volatility like that, I don't care what the market was, whether it was soybeans in '76 or '83 or whether it was silver at the top in 1980 or whether it was some of the biotech stocks at the top earlier in the '90's, when you get that kind of volatility you know that generally that's associated with a top. The best you can hope for if you're long is to look at some type of significant long term sideways act
ion where the markets consolidate before moving higher or generally speaking allow that those have done their thing and we will have topped for years and years to come. I'm probably more of a subscriber to the latter theory. 

Q: How big was your fund when you started and how much money does your company have under management now? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Right now we have about five or six billion dollars under the management of several large traders including myself. Back in '83 we started with $300,000. 

Q: Do you like managing so much more money? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I don't like managing it at all. The smaller it is the greater you can do because there is no slippage and greater liquidity. 

Q: It was widely published that in 1987 you reportedly made between $80 million and $100 million ? more than anybody on Wall Street. How did that make you feel? 

Paul Tudor Jones: At the time, I was young enough to enjoy that. I was in my early 30's and that was exciting, but the older you get you realize that at the end of the day the amount of money you have has absolutely zero bearing on how you feel about yourself and the quality of your life. It becomes a very shallow measure of a person's worth. I have a great wife and four great kids now and that would be my crowning achievement. 

Q: Is there more risk in the stock market now than ever before? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Certainly in the stock market, there are some stocks with valuation levels that mankind has never seen before so on
e would think that they have a lot more risk. It's funny, but I'm actually not the best person to ask about the stock market. You see, our company is just a group of 280 individuals, all of us are basically united under one purpose, and everybody has pretty much the same MO, young professionals with kids, generally very conservative. Really all my capital is tied up in this company, so on the one hand I think to myself my gosh the concept of owning stocks is anathema to me because of the fact that I always want to be liquid, so a lot of our investments typically are things with a very short lifespan like derivatives, not owning stocks. So as far as risk in the stock market, that's not my core competency, so I'm really not a great person to ask. 

Q: Can you comment on the life of your fund's returns since you began investing? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Our returns have definitely flattened out since the '80's. But if you look at my risk adjusted returns, they're very similar and I'm probably the same exact trader as I was 15 years ago. What's different has been my own personal appetite for risk and volatility. I think that probably happens with a lot of people as they get older. Everything is a function of leverage, how much of a draw down are you willing to tolerate, how much leverage do you want to put on. When I was younger, I had much greater draw downs, much greater draw down frequency, much greater leverage. So again, I'm probably the exact same trader as I was 15 years ago, it's just less risk, less return. 

There are exceptions to the rule, but the normal progression of most traders that I've seen is that the older they get something happens. Sometimes they get more successful and therefore they take less risk. That's something that as a company we literally sit and work with. That's certainly something that I've had to come to grips with in particular over the past 12 to 18 months. You have to actively manage against your natural tendency to become more conservative. You do that because all of a sudden you become successful and don't want to lose what you have and/or in my case you get married and have children and naturally, consciously or subconsciously, you become more conservative. If there's on
e thing in our company that we probably will spend more time working on in the year 2000 than we ever spent historically, it's that as a group we all came to be overly conservative and we need to leverage up more within our company and I'm probably the worst offender. So now I have a whole variety of portfolio measures that I sit down with every afternoon, to try to hit some benchmark leverage measures to make sure I deliver what my investors unequivocally deserve in terms of the opportunity to get the kinds of returns they're used to. 

Q: What are some perceptions and priorities of yours that have changed over the years? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think there's a natural progression that everyone goes through. The older you get, the more you'll realize that a quality life is on
e that has an extraordinary balance in it. The guy that's working at 75 years of age and still running a company, that doesn't have any appeal to me because I think his life is out of balance. If the only thing that he can find that's that satisfying to him is being involved in a profession with something, I think you've got to have more balance. In my 20's all I cared about was being financially successful and today I look to strive for a more balanced life. In that context though, when I come to work I'm as competitive as anybody you'll meet and I clearly look forward to the day when I have the best performance of my peers, the macro hedge funds, for the year, which hopefully will be this year. 

Q: What was the best and worst year you ever had? 

Paul Tudor Jones: The worst year was probably 1993. I on
ly returned 1.6%. Never had a down year. And my best years, well I fortunately cut my teeth in two great bear markets, the '87 bear market and the 1990 Japan bear market and there's no question that that's biased me a bit. I returned about 200% in 1987 and 80% or 90% in 1990. I worked 80 hours a week and clearly I'm not doing that without trying to be number one. All my friends are in the business, and I wish them all well, but everybody's got a competitive spirit.
Q: Are you more naturally bearish or bullish? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Bearish, I think. I would have difficulty asking anyone to pay 10 or 20 times earnings for my earnings capability for the rest of my life. I would think you're crazy to do that even though it might be a great deal, so the concept of paying on
e-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE's? If it's going up you're supposed to be long it. But there's no question that it's just easier for me to leverage with some degree of conviction the short side of some markets. 

Q: When are you going to retire? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I have a son that just turned three and I would unequivocally continue to trade until he went to college. At that point I think I'd probably be airborne hunting and fishing all over the globe every day in my life. I don't even necessarily need to be hunting and fishing, I just love to be out doors. 

Q: What do you think is going to happen to your company when you do retire? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I could get run over by a truck tomorrow morning and the company would go on and wouldn't miss a beat. We've got the best business model there is on the street for doing this. 

Q: Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think the biggest issue facing America, unequivocally, is campaign finance reform. When you sit down and talk about gun control or charter schools or whatever, all those issues, it's impossible to have politicians actually vote their conscience when they're all unequivocally conflicted because of the fund raising necessities they have and the amount of money they take. Until you have campaign finance reform and term limits, we're dealing with a whole group of elected officials who are incapable of making any independent and honest decisions. So McCain, Bradley, I'll vote for either on
e of them. I'll vote for any politician that's going to sign the dotted line to get the money lenders out of the temple. I think that if you look at the 13,000 registered lobbyists in Washington, what chance do you or I have of having a voice in government unless you're willing to write a big check? Because that's what all those guys are doing. I'll tell you from my conservation battles down in Florida. The entire sugar industry in Florida, which is destroying the Everglades, they have one business. Their business is not growing sugar. Their business is paying off every politician that they can see simply so that they can continue with a subsidy that does nothing but take money out of every Americans pocket and put it in theirs. 

Q: You were close to getting that legislation to go your way, weren't you? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Right. And they spent forty some-odd-million dollars to fight us. Forty million dollars that they probably got through some extraordinarily inequitable and unfair and offensive subsidy that they have done an excellent job of paying off every politician in Congress for. Campaign finance for me is the key issue. It's funny, McCain is a great example. He's probably way too conservative for me, but I'd vote for the guy in a heart beat because there's no doubt in my mind that he more so than anyone would probably go in and attack the vested interests there in Washington that completely distort and destroy our political process. 

Q: Would you ever run for political office? 

Paul Tudor Jones: No. I've got a family and kids and I couldn't be away from them that much. 

Q: Let's play a word association game. I'll say a word and you say whatever comes to mind. 

Q: Technical analysis 

Paul Tudor Jones: Made well over half the money that I've made in my lifetime. 

Q: Fundamental Analysis 

Paul Tudor Jones: Made the rest. 

Q: Are you better at on
e or the other? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Probably technical analysis. 

Q: Market efficiency 

Paul Tudor Jones: No such thing. 

Q: Long Term Capital Management 

Paul Tudor Jones: Icarus. 

Q: Black Monday 

Paul Tudor Jones: It was like watching a natural disaster from the sidelines. I was intimately involved in that day, but the macro implications of what was happening overwhelmed any personal considerations that I had. 

Q: Warren Buffet 

Paul Tudor Jones: His aversion to paying taxes made him a great investor. 

Q: Kids 

Paul Tudor Jones: The most fun you'll ever have. 

Q: Environment 

Paul Tudor Jones: The second most fun you'll ever have. 

Q: The Internet 

Paul Tudor Jones: A wonderful delivery mechanism that's overhyped. 

Q: Day Traders 

Paul Tudor Jones: 95% losers. 

Q: The University of Virginia 

Paul Tudor Jones: The most balanced education a person can receive and I'm not talking about just academic education, but all the other touch points that go with that; character building, ethics, exposure, etc? 

Q: Wall Street 

Paul Tudor Jones: The last great frontier. I went there with nothing. You can go there with nothing and do whatever you want to do. 

Q: What do you think you'll be most remembered for? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I don't think anybody will remember me. 

Q: What do you hope you'll be remembered for? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think Teddy Roosevelt's greatest legacy is the national parks system, so on a micro level anything that I could do to protect natural resources, I think, would be the best legacy that I could leave my kids. 

Q: If you were writing a story about Paul Tudor Jones, what on
e question would you ask him? 

Paul Tudor Jones: If you could do on
e thing differently, what would you do? 

Q: And what's the answer? 

Paul Tudor Jones: When you look at the wealth creation in the Internet in the past decade, it would have required me to literally completely change my stripes and move over in a different world from macro analysis and trading a whole variety of instruments to going into building a business in a brave new world in the Internet. So I look back and I see the wealth creation that we've seen the past three years of which we've fortunately, derivatively been able to enjoy here at Tudor because we have our whole Boston office that's dedicated towards private equity and that did an extraordinary job last year. But I guess, everyone that works on Wall Street today, particularly given our industry reliance on computers, knowing that that entire explosion occurred right under your nose, everyone has got to say, 'My gosh, what if eight or 10 years ago I had made a decision to completely focus and be in the middle of technology? Instead of sitting in front of a screen, what if I had gotten on a plane and gone and played the venture capital game out in California every day'? I'd argue that many of the people that benefited from it probably were in the right place at the right time and got very fortunate and there probably aren't but a handful of people that actually had the vision to go do it and the on
es that actually did, I take my hat off to them and applaud. But I've always said, I'd just as soon be lucky as good and there are a whole variety of people that were just in the right place at the right time who did extraordinarily well and I'm happy for them. But I always do play the 'what if' game. What if you'd taken your full repertoire of talents and skills and been involved in that from day one? Could you have been Bill Gates or could you have been whatever empire builder there was?
俺的英文也很烂,这是谷歌翻译的,凑合能看出大概意思,如果张轶大哥能有时间完美(漂亮?俺不知道用啥词了,反正张轶翻译的就是精品)的翻译一下就更好了
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保罗都铎琼斯二世访谈 
和我们的意见

保罗都铎琼斯是个传奇的商品交易。以下是他接受采访时,我们的意见。

采访保罗都铎琼斯二世 
(摘要)
由Joel拉敏
00年1月13号

保罗都铎琼斯二世是总统和都铎投资公司的创始人,并在杰克D. Schwagers特色经典的“市场奇才”。这是从采访编辑的记录,这是保罗琼斯举行在康涅狄格州格林威治办公室2000年1月13日。 

问:你能否简要介绍你的背景? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我去孟菲斯大学在校高中生。我父亲去弗吉尼亚法学院,所以他带领我的弗吉尼亚大学。我来到弗吉尼亚州1972至1976年,主修经济学,并有很大的时间。我非常喜欢弗吉尼亚大学。我毕业并到工作的伊莱塔利斯谁是从弗吉尼亚州新奥尔良毕业。他是一个棉花投机,也许是最大的棉花投机家,他给了我一个关于前纽约棉花交易所的工作,我开始从字面上两个星期后,我从学校毕业。这就是我到了期货市场。 

问:您在交易引发了原来的利益? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我去纽约,看到的商品交易所场内并有这样的能量水平,因此有太多的激动,我知道这是我的去处。我一直喜欢的行动和交流对我来说就像一个完美的家庭似乎。 

问:你什么时候决定你想运行一个基金呢? 

保罗都铎琼斯:1976年我开始在为文楼的工作,然后我成为了赫顿经纪人。 1980年,我继续我自己的严格的,他们在这个地方,没有说的两年半内,有两个半奇妙 

获利年度,但我真的厌倦。我申请哈佛商学院,被录取了,并且即将去。我简直是收拾行装去,然后我想什么,因为我在这里做,'这简直是疯',他们不会教我任何东西。这技能,不是他们在商业学校任教。所以我没有去,我留下来,但我真的很无聊,因为不是个人的互动,那是我渴望和有同事和在一个干净的气氛,那就是当我开始我的基金。所有通过了我一直在团队体育和联谊会,在学校我是在各式各样的活动,所有参与其中的团队为导向,当我在我自己的钱,我每月印制的,但涉及的成长我生不逢时吨获得了IT的心理满意 

问:你如何描述你的一般投资理念? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我认为我是一个最保守的投资者在地球上的意义,我绝对讨厌亏损。我的祖父说,在很小的时候,你只值你可以写一个检查明天,所以我拥有的净资产并列股票一拉了比尔盖茨的概念,而上帝全能这将是一个很大的问题,我有,也会是这只是我的诅咒,这就是一个原因,我一直喜欢期货市场的那么多,因为你通常可以得到的现金流动,并在字面上的几分钟内。所以,总是吸引着我,因为我总是很快的液体,如果我想。我要说,我的投资哲学是,我没有考虑很多的风险,我巨大的倾斜与奖励风险的机会,寻找机会。千万不要让他们进入你的口袋-这意味着我们没有理由利用大增。我们没有理由采取任何财务风险的数额很大,因为你应该总是能够找到的东西在这里您可以对你有利的倾斜奖励风险之间的关系如此巨大,你可以采取重大的报酬与风险投资的各种机会,小应给你的最低提取痛苦和最大的好处的机会。 

问:你如何衡量你的表现? 

保罗都铎琼斯:你一定要在良好的交易商看一下历史。如果一个交易平均每年可提供2至3倍最糟糕的提取,那么这是一个非常良好的纪录,我真想说,这是我想做的事情。如果我认为这对我的资金管理,10%将是最糟糕的,我会在某一年,然后容忍希望我每年举行2至3倍,而这可能是我干了什么。也许略为低,在'90's和1以上,在'80'号小 

问:您的竞争优势,作为一个商人? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我的秘密正从贸易角度看成功的是要有一个不知疲倦的和一个不朽的信息和知识的无尽渴求。因为我认为有某些情况下,你完全可以理解激励每个买家和卖家,并有一个什么事情发生不错的图片。它只是需要一个繁重的工作和奉献寻找所有可能的信息比特很大的数目。 

你选择的工具,而有各式各样的基准,事情,你在交易时的特殊乐器无论是股票或商品或债券看看。有一个基本的信息集,您就获得每个特定的资产类别,然后覆盖了一大堆技术指标,这就是你如何作出决定。它没有什么差别无论是猪肚或雅虎。在一天结束时,都一样。您需要了解哪些因素您需要在您的处置要发展的核心竞争力,使在该特定资产类别的合法投资的决定。然后在一天结束时,最重要的是如何在良好的风险控制你。 95任何伟大的百分之交易将是风险控制。 

问:你能否举一个例子? 

保罗都铎琼斯:当然可以。上个百分点基础上,就一直是我最有利可图的是1987年的崩溃。有一个巨大的嵌入式衍生工具等待事故发生在1987年大崩盘的,因为在当时的市场上所谓的投资组合保险的东西基本上意味着,当股市开始沿着它要创造更多的销售,因为谁的人了写这些衍生工具将被迫出售每向下滴答。所以这是一个情况下,你知道,如果你过了一个地步,市场开始走这实际上出售级联,而不是干,因为对这些已经写衍生工具的措施。而在1987年大崩盘对你有被高估的市场,你也终于有每一种情况下,蜱,也会创造更多销售,我想我理解的动力。飞机坠毁的东西,立刻forecastable的人理解这一措施,衍生工具有多大,他们已经在这样一个相对较短的时间和影响,它本来在一个相对无知和na'e市场。而完全相同的事情发生在1990年在日本。 

问:那么你对美国股市的意见呢? 

保罗都铎琼斯:显然存在着美国股市,我们从来没有见过任何地方近代的估值方面这样的事情部分。现在的问题是什么触发事件,可让您的意思,而恢复和你有特殊的衍生于1987年事件的启发,我看不到现在。那么如何能长久的坚持这些级别高估?我觉得,而不是看到任何真正决裂的类型,你可能会看到前瞻性是值得期待有更多像'68至'73你有没有在大型卷筒改正,轮换和市场,这并不能作出任何上涨的进展,但有很多的波动范围大穿越。 

问:你有什么,你正在寻找具体的催化剂? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我认为你最终得到的利率水平在他们对股市的负面异常。你看一下每一个熊市,他们总是基本上是因为发生了最新的通货膨胀蜱和最新蜱利率。我们确实在一个点率不够高,他们将不得不对股市产生重大影响。当您在我们曾在纳斯达克在过去一个月例如波动看,每次我看到这样的波动,我不在乎什么市场,无论是在'76和'83大豆或是否白银在1980年的顶部或是否在顶部早些时候在'90'的生物科技股票的一些秒,当你认为你知道这种波动是一般,可与最相关的。你能做的最好的希望,如果你长的是,在一些重大的长期横向操作类型看市场的巩固地方在上涨或一般来说,这些让他们做的事情,我们将有年,年突破到达。我可能更多的是用户对后者的理论。 

问:是你有多大的基金时开始,多少钱贵公司是否有管理的呢? 

保罗都铎琼斯:现在,我们有五,六亿美元下包括我自己在内几个大型交易商的管理。早在'83,我们开始与$ 300,000。 

问:你喜欢的管理,使更多的钱? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我不喜欢它在所有的管理没有。这是越小越你可以做,没有延误,更大的流动性。 

问:这是广为公布,在1987年你报介乎800万至1 200万人?超过华尔街的人。这是怎么让你感觉? 

保罗都铎琼斯:在那时,我年轻,还可享受。我在30年代初期,是的,而且令人兴奋,但是老年人你让你知道,在最终的数额你绝对零您对自己和你的生活品质感的影响。它成为一个人的价值很浅的措施。我有一个伟大的妻子和4个大孩子,现在这将是我最大的成就。 

问:是否有更多的风险,股市现在比以往任何时候? 

保罗都铎琼斯:当然,在股票市场,有与估值,人类以前从未见过这样一个水平,一些种群会认为他们有更多的风险。这很有趣,但我实际上不是最好的人询问股市。你看,我们的公司只是一组280人,大家基本上在一个目标下联合起来,大家都大致相同密苏里州,与孩子的年轻专业人员,通常非常保守。真的我所有的资金都和这家公司,一方面我觉得我的天哪对自己的持有股票的概念,是诅咒,因为事实上,我总是想我是液体,所以我们的投资通常很多与这样的衍生工具的寿命很短的东西,不持有股票。因此,尽量在股市的风险,那不是我的核心竞争力,所以我真的不是一个伟大的人问。 

问:你能否谈谈您的基金的回报率来说,自从你开始投资? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我们的收益绝对夷为平地,因为'80'号出但是如果你看看我的风险调整后的回报,他们非常相似,我可能是完全相同的商人,因为我是15年前。但不同的是我自己的风险和波动个人的胃口。我认为这可能与很多人发生随着年龄。一切是一个杠杆作用,有多少一提取,你是否愿意容忍多少杠杆你想穿上。当我年轻,我有更大的借鉴起伏,下更大的频率,更大的杠杆平局。所以,再一次,我可能是完全相同的商人,因为我是15年前,它只是风险较低,收益少。 

有规则的例外,但大多数是我见过的交易正常进展的是,年纪愈大事情发生。有时它们会更成功,因此,他们采取风险较小。在这个时候,作为一个公司,我们从字面上坐在工作。这是肯定的,我已经来了,尤其是正视过去的12至18个月。你必须对你的积极管理的自然倾向更加保守。你这样做,因为突然你成为成功的,不想失去你所和/或在我的情况你结婚和生孩子,自然,自觉或不自觉,你都变得更保守。如果说有一件事在我们公司,我们很可能会花更多的时间工作在2000年就比任何时候都花了历史,那就是作为一个群体,我们都来过于保守,我们需要调动更多的在我们公司,我了'米可能是最严重的罪犯。所以现在我有一个整体组合的各种措施,我坐下来每天下午,试图击出基准杠杆措施,以确保我什么我的投资者提供明确的有机会得到回报他们应得的各种条件使用。 

问:什么是一些看法和该多年来改变你的优先次序? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我认为有一种自然的进步,每个人会经过。当你年纪越大,就越你会意识到,质量是生命中有一个不寻常的平衡。这个家伙说的工作的75岁,仍在运行的公司,不具有任何吸引力,因为我觉得他的生活已失去平衡。另一方面,如果只是他可以发现这是满足他正在与一些专业问题,我认为你必须有更多的平衡。在我20就是我关心的是财政上的成功,今天我希望争取一个更加平衡的生活。虽然在这方面,当我来上班,我的竞争力,任何人都满足你,我清楚地期待着有一天,我有我的同行最佳性能,宏观对冲基金的一年,这很有希望将是今年。 

问:什么是最好和最差的一年你遇到过? 

保罗都铎琼斯:最严重的可能是1993年。我只回了1.6%。从来没有一年下跌。和我最好的几年,我有幸以及削减两个大熊市,熊市的'87牙齿和1990年日本的熊市有说这是偏见,我就有些没有问题。我又回到1987年约200%和80%或90%,在1990年。我曾经每周80小时,显然我没有这样做,没有试图成为第一。我所有的朋友都在做生意,我希望他们都很好,但每个人都得到了竞争精神。 

问:你更自然熊市还是牛市? 

保罗都铎琼斯:看跌,我想。我想很难有人要求将支付10或20倍的市盈率为我盈利为我的余生能力。我认为你疯了这样做,即使它可能是很大的,所以公司支付任何对我有百年的,事倍收益的概念就是大逆不道。话虽如此,在一天结束时,你的任务是买什么上升和销售下降等所发生的真正谁给一对该死的PE的?如果是涨你应该是多久。但毫无疑问,这只是对我来说更容易利用一些被定罪的程度,一些市场做空。 

问:你什么时候退休? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我有一个刚满3人,我可以明确地继续经营,直到他上过大学的儿子。在这一点我想我可能会在全球各地每天空中狩猎和捕鱼在我的生命。我什至不不必是狩猎和捕鱼,我喜欢到了门。 

问:你认为会发生在你的公司当你退休? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我可以得到辗过一辆卡车明天上午和公司将继续,不会错过一个节拍。我们拥有最好的商业模式是有这样做,在街道上。 

问:你是谁投赞成票,在总统选举中? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我认为美国面临最大的问题,明确,是竞选财务改革。当你坐下来谈论枪支管理或特许学校也好,所有这些问题,它不可能有真正的政治家凭良心投票时,他们都明确,因为该基金的冲突,他们已经筹集生活必需品,以及他们采取的金额。除非你有竞选资金改革和任期限制,我们处理的当选官员整个集团谁是作出独立,诚实的决策能力。因此,麦凯恩,布拉德利,我将投票支持其中一方。我将投票支持任何政治家这将签署虚线得到寺庙的放债人了。我认为如果你在华盛顿的13000注册游说看,什么机会,你我拥有一个在政府的声音有,除非你愿意写大检查?因为这是所有那些家伙在做什么。我会告诉你从我的保护下在佛罗里达州的战斗。在佛罗里达州,整个制糖业是摧毁沼泽地,他们有一个业务。他们的业务并没有增长糖。他们的业务回报每一个政治家,他们可以看到简单,使他们能继续进行补贴什么也不做,但考虑到每一个美国人的口袋里的钱出来把他们的了。 

问:你是越来越接近的法例,去你的,不是吗? 

保罗都铎琼斯:是的。他们花了约40多万美元,帮助我们。 4000万美元,他们可能通过一些非常不公平和不公平补贴和进攻,他们做了一个回报每一个政治家在国会中的出色工作得到。运动对我来说,金融是关键问题。这很有趣,麦凯恩是一个很好的例子。他可能太保守了我,但我会投赞成票的心的家伙打败,因为没有我毫不怀疑,他比任何人都更何况很可能会在和华盛顿的袭击既得利益那里,完全歪曲和破坏我们的政治进程。 

问:请问您是否竞选公职? 

保罗都铎琼斯:不,我已经有了一个家庭和孩子,我不能离开他们了。 

问:让我们玩文字游戏协会。我要说的一个词,你说什么浮现在脑海。 

问:技术分析 

保罗都铎琼斯:制造,超过半数的,我已经在我的一生赚钱。 

问:基本分析 

保罗都铎琼斯:所作的休息。 

问:你最好在一个或其他? 

保罗都铎琼斯:可能是技术分析。 

问:市场效率 

保罗都铎琼斯:没有这回事。 

问:长期资本管理公司 

保罗都铎琼斯:伊卡洛斯。 

问:黑色星期一 

保罗都铎琼斯:就像在一旁观看自然灾害了。我密切参与当天,但发生了什么压倒任何我个人的考虑了宏观的影响。 

问:巴菲特 

保罗都铎琼斯:他厌恶纳税,使他成为伟大的投资者。 

问:儿童 

保罗都铎琼斯:最有趣的你从来就。 

问:环境 

保罗都铎琼斯:第二个最有趣的你从来就。 

问:互联网 

保罗都铎琼斯:一个美好的传递机制的火爆。 

问:日交易者 

保罗都铎琼斯:95%的输家。 

问:美国弗吉尼亚大学 

保罗都铎琼斯:最均衡的教育人才可以接受,我不是说只是学术教育,但所有其他接触点与此相伴,品格,道德,曝光等? 

问:华尔街 

保罗都铎琼斯:最后的伟大的边疆。我去那里什么也没有。你可以到那里没事,做你想做的事。 

问:你认为你最怀念? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我认为没有人会记得我。 

问:你希望你的记忆中? 

保罗都铎琼斯:我认为罗斯福总统的最大遗产是该系统的国家公园,因此,在微观层面东西,我可以做些什么来保护自然资源,我认为,这将是最好的遗产,我可以离开我的孩子。 

问:如果你写一本关于保罗都铎琼斯,故事会是什么一个问题,你问他? 

保罗都铎琼斯:如果你可以做一件事不同,你会怎么做? 

问:答案是什么? 

保罗都铎琼斯:当你在过去十年互联网创造财富来看,它会要求我从字面上完全改变我的条纹,动之以不同的世界各地从宏观分析和交易的各种手段去整成建设一个崭新的世界在互联网业务。因此,我回头看,我认为创造的财富,我们已经看到了过去三年,我们已经幸运地,性地得以享受铎,因为我们有我们的整个波士顿的办公室,专门对私人股本,并没有一去年非常出色。但我想,每个人在华尔街工作的今天,特别是由于我们对电脑业的依赖,因为他们知道这整个爆炸的权利发生在你的鼻子,人人都在说,'我的天哪,如果8年或10年前,我作出决定,并完全集中在技术中?而不是坐在屏幕前面,如果我已经变得在飞机上,发挥了在加利福尼亚州的风险资本游戏,每天'?我认为,许多人从中受益的可能是在正确的地点在合适的时间,得到非常幸运,有可能不是一个人,但实际上具有远见去这样做和那些少数实际上那样,我把我摘下帽子向他们欢呼。但我一直在说,我只希望尽快将幸运,好,有很多人,仅仅在正确的地方是在正确的时间谁也非常好,我为他们感到高兴各式各样。但是,我总是这样玩'万一'的游戏。如果你想采取的人才和技术的充分酒器和参与,从第一天?你能比尔盖茨已经或可能您已被任何帝国的建造者有?
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