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Paul Tudor Jones:完美的失败<转自长阳>  

2009-10-20 13:19:14|  分类: 转帖 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Paul Tudor Jones:完美的失败
原文链接:Paul Tudor Jones – Failure Speech June 2009
作者:Paul Tudor Jones



When I was asked to give the commencement address to a graduating class of 9th graders, I jumped at the chance. You see, I have four teenagers of my own and I feel like this is the point in my life when I am supposed to tell them something profound. So thank you Buckley community for giving me this opportunity. I tried this speech out on them last night and am happy to report that none of them fell asleep until I was three quarters done.


When composing this message I searched my memory for my same experience back in 1969 when I was sitting right where you are. I realized that I could hardly remember on
e single speaker from my junior high or high school days. Now that could be my age. I’m old enough now that some days I can’t remember how old I am. But it could also have been a sign of the times. Remember, I was part of the student rebellion, and we did not listen to anything that someone over 30 said because they were just too clueless. Or so we thought.


Anyway, as I sat there considering this speech further, I suddenly had a flashback of the on
e speaker who I actually did remember from youthful days. He was a Shakespearean actor who came to our school to extol the virtues of Shakespeare. He started out by telling us that Shakespeare was not about poetry or romance or love, but instead, was all about battle, and fighting and death and war. Then he pulled out a huge sword which he began waving over the top of his head as he described various bloody conflicts that were all part and parcel of Shakespeare’s plays. Now being a 15-year old testosterone laden student at an all boys school, I thought this was pretty cool. I remember thinking, “Yea, this guy gets it. Forget about the deep meaning and messages in the words, let’s talk about who’s getting the blade.”


As you can see, I have a similar sword which I am going to stop waving over my head now, because A) I think you are permanently scarred, and B) the headmaster looks like he is about to tackle me and C) some of you, I can tell, are way too excited about this sword, and you’re scaring me a little.


I’m here with you young men today because your parents wanted me to speak to you about service—that is, serving others and giving back to the broader community for the blessings that you have received in your life. But that is a speech for a later time in your life. Don’t get me wrong, serving others is really, really imp
ortant. It truly is the secret to happiness in life. I swear to God. Money won’t do it. Fame won’t do it. Nor will sex, drugs, homeruns or high achievement. But now I am getting preachy.


Today, I want to talk to you about the dirtiest word that any of you 9th graders know. It’s a word that is so terrible that your parents won’t talk about it; your teachers won’t talk about it; and you certainly don’t ever want to dwell on it. But this is a preparatory school, and you need to be prepared to deal with this phenomenon because you will experience it. That is a guarantee. Every single on
e of you will experience it not once but multiple times, and every adult in this room has had to deal with this in its many forms and manifestations. It’s the “F” word.


FAILURE. Failure that is so mortifying and so devastating that it makes you try to become invisible. It makes you want to hide your face, your soul, your being from everyone else because of the shame. Trust me, boys—if you haven’t already tasted that, you will. I am sure most of you here already have. AND IT IS HARD. I know this firsthand, but I also know that failure was a key element to my life’s journey.


My first real failure was in 1966 in the 6th grade. I played on our basketball team, and I was the smallest and youngest kid on the team. It was the last game of the season and I was the on
ly player on the squad that had not scored a point all season. So in the second half the coach directed all the kids to throw me the ball when I went in, and for me to shoot so that I would score. The problem was that Coach Clark said it loud enough that every person in the stands could hear it as well as every member of the opposing team. Going into the fourth quarter, our team was well ahead, Coach Clark inserted me and thus, began the worst eight minutes of my life up until that point. Every time I got the ball, the entire other team would rush towards me, and on top of that, that afternoon I was the greatest brick layer the world had ever seen. The game ended. I had missed five shots, and the other team erupted in jubilation that I had not scored. I ran out of the gym as fast as I could only to bump into two of the opposing team’s players who proceeded to laugh and tease and ridicule me. I cried and hid in the bathroom. Well, that passed, and I kept trying team sports, but I was just too small to really compete. So in the 10th grade, I took up boxing where suddenly everyone was my size and weight. I nearly won the Memphis Golden Gloves my senior year in high school and did win the collegiate championship when I was 19. Standing in the middle of that ring and getting that trophy, I still remember looking around for those two little kids who had run me into that bathroom back in the 6th grade, because I was going to knock their blocks off. That’s one problem with failure. It can stay with you for a very long time.


The next time the dragon of failure reared his ugly head was in 1978. I was working in New Orleans for on
e of the greatest cotton traders of all time, Eli Tullis. Now, New Orleans is an unbelievable city. It has the Strawberry Festival, the Jazz Festival, the Sugar Bowl, Mardi Gras, and just about every other excuse for a party that you can ever imagine. Heck, in that town, waking up was an excuse to party. I was still pretty fresh out of college, and my mentality, unfortunately, was still firmly set on fraternity row. It was a Friday morning in June, and I had been out literally all night with a bunch of my friends. My job was to man the phone all day during trading hours and call cotton prices quotes from New York into Mr. Tullis’ office. Around noon, things got quiet on the New York floor, and I got overly drowsy. The next thing I remember was a ruler prying my chin off my chest, and Mr. Tullis calling to me, “Paul. Paul.” My eyes fluttered opened and as I came to my senses, he said to me, “Son, you are fired.” I’d never been so shocked or hurt in my life. I literally thought I was going to die for I had just been sacked by an iconic figure in my business.

失败之魔再次抬起他丑陋的头是在1978年。我当时在新奥尔良为有史以来最伟大的棉花交易商之一艾里·突里斯工作。现在,新奥尔良成了传奇城市,这里有草莓节、爵士节、Sugar Bowl, 大斋戒以及你能够想象的任何聚会。我当时大学刚毕业,很不幸,我的意识形态仍然牢牢地定在兄弟会上。那是六月的一个星期五,我整夜与一伙朋友流连忘返。我的工作是在交易时间守住电话,把纽约的棉花报价通过电话告诉突里斯先生的办公室。中午时,纽约交易厅那边变得相当安静,我又非常困。我记得的下一件事情就是有人揪着我的下巴,都快要揪掉了,突里斯先生冲着我喊,“保罗。保罗。”我的眼睛朦朦胧胧地睁开,头脑清醒后,他对我说,“小伙子,你被解雇了。”我一生中从未如此震惊如此受伤。我真得以为我要死了,因为我竟然被自己的职业偶像人物炒了鱿鱼。

My shame turned into anger. I was not angry at Mr. Tullis for he was right. I was angry at myself. But I knew I was not a failure, and I swore that I was going to prove to myself that I could be a success. I called a friend and secured a job on the floor of the New York Cotton Exchange and moved to the City. Today, I will put my work ethic up against anybody’s on Wall Street. Failure will give you a tattoo that will stay with you your whole life, and sometimes it’s a really good thing. On
e other side note, to this day, I’ve never told my parents that I got fired. I told them I just wanted to try something different. Shame can be a lifetime companion for which you better prepare yourself.


Now, there are two types of failure you will experience in life. The first type is what I just described and comes from things you can control. That is the worst kind. But there is another form of failure that will be equally devastating to you, and that is the kind beyond your control. This happened to me in 1982. I had met a very lovely young Harvard student from Connecticut, dated her for two years then asked her to marry me right after she graduated from college. We set a date; we sent out the invitations; and all was fantastic until on
e month before the wedding when her father called me. He said, “Paul, my daughter sat me down this afternoon, and she doesn’t know how to tell you this, but she is really unhappy and thinks it’s time for you two to take a break.” At first I thought he was joking because he was a very funny guy. Then he said, “No, she is serious about this.” I thought to myself, “Oh, my God, I am being dumped at the altar.” I’m from Tennessee. Getting dumped at the altar was the supreme social embarrassment of that time. It was a big deal. When all my family and friends found out, they were ready to re-start the Civil War on the spot. I had to remind them that the last Civil War didn’t go so well for our side, and I didn’t like our chances in a rematch. The reality was that I was a 26-year old knucklehead, and since all my friends were getting married, I kind of felt it was time for me to do the same thing. And that was the worst reason in the world to get married. I actually think she understood that and to a certain extent spared me what would have been a very tough marriage. Instead, I’ve had an incredible marriage for twenty years to a wonderful wife, and we have four kids that I love more than anything on Earth. Some things happen to you that at the time will make you feel like the world is coming to an end, but in actuality, there is a very good reason for it. You just can’t see it and don’t know it. When one door closes, another will open, but standing in that hallway can be hell. You just have to persevere. Quite often that dragon of failure is really chasing you off the wrong road and on to the right one.

By now you are thinking, how much longer is this loser going to keep on talking. My kids are all teenagers, and whenever I’m telling them something I think is important, they often wonder the same thing. But the main point I want you to take away today is that some of your greatest successes are going to be the children of failure. This touches upon the original reason I was invited here today. In 1986, I adopted a class of Bedford Stuyvesant 6th graders and promised them if they graduated from high school, I would pay for their college. For those of you who don’t know, Bed-Stuy is one of New York City’s toughest neighborhoods. Even the rats are scared to go there at night. Statistically about 8% of the class I adopted would graduate from high school, so my intervention was designed to get them all into college. For the next six years, I did everything I could for them. I spent about $5,000 annually per student taking them on ski trips, taking them to Africa, taking them to my home in Virginia on the weekends, having report card night, hiring a counselor to help coordinate afternoon activities and doing my heartfelt best to get them ready for college. Six years later, a researcher from Harvard contacted me and asked if he could study my kids as part of an overall assessment of what then was called the “I Have a Dream” Program. I said sure. He came back to me a few months later and shared some really disturbing statistics. 86 kids that I had poured my heart and soul into for six years were statistically no different than kids from a nearby school that did not have the services our afterschool program provided. There was no difference in graduation rates, dropout rates, academic scores, teenage pregnancies, and the list went on. The only thing that we managed to do was get three times as many of our kids into college because we were offering scholarships whereas the other schools were not. But in terms of preparing these kids for college, we completely and totally failed. Boy, did this open my eyes. That was the first real-time example for me of how intellectual capital will always trump financial capital. In other words, I had the money to help these kids, but it was useless because I didn’t have the brains to help them. I had tried to succeed with sheer force of will and energy and financial resources. I learned that this was not enough. What I needed were better defined goals, better metrics, and most importantly, more efficient technologies that would enable me to achieve those goals. What that whole experience taught me was that starting with kids at age 12 was 12 years too late. An afterschool program was actually putting a band-aid on a much deeper structural issue, and that was that our public education system was failing us. So in 2000, along with the greatest educator I knew, a young man named Norman Atkins, we started the Excellence Charter School in Bedford Stuyvesant for boys. We set the explicit goal of hiring the best teachers with the greatest set of skills to be the top performing school in the city. Now that was an ambitious goal but last year in 2008, Excellence ranked #1 out of 543 public schools in New York City for reading and math proficiency for any third and fourth grade cohort, and our school was 98% African American boys. We never would have done that had I not failed almost 15 years earlier.

现在你可能想,这个失败者还要继续唠叨多久。我的孩子们都十几岁了,每当我跟他们讲我认为重要的事情,他们都会想同样的事情。但今天我想让你们记住的要点是你们某些最伟大的成绩将会成为失败之子。这其实是我今天应邀来这里的根本原因。1986年,我认领了Bedford Stuyvesant 6年级的一个班,向他们承诺,如果他们能够高中毕业,我将供他们上大学。可能你们有人还不知道,Bed-Stuy是纽约最混乱的社区。晚上连老鼠都不敢去那里。据统计,我认领的班上有8%的学生将从高中毕业,所以我的介入就是让他们全都上大学。接下来的6年里,我为他们做了我力所能及的所有事情。我每年为每位学生花5,000美元,带他们去滑雪,去非洲,周末带他们到我弗吉尼亚的家里,举办成绩汇报之夜,雇佣顾问帮助协调下午的活动,尽我所能地让他们上大学。六年后,一位哈佛研究者联系到我,问我他能不能将我的孩子们作为“我有一个梦想”项目整体评估的一部分。我说,当然没问题。几个月后,他又回到我身边,分享了一些让人真得很头疼的数据。我花了六年心血的86个孩子与周围学校没有校外服务的孩子别无二致。毕业率、辍学率、学习成绩、少女怀孕等数据都没有分别。我们唯一能够做到的事情是我们的孩子考大学的比率是别人的三倍,而那不过是因为我们提供了奖学金,而其他学校没有。但是,说到让这些孩子上大学,我们彻头彻尾地失败了。孩子们,这是不是让我开眼了?这可是第一次实时范例,让我了解人力资本如何战胜金融资本。换言之,我有钱帮助这些孩子,可因为我没有脑力来帮助他们,所以仍然徒劳无益。我尝试用纯意志力、能量、金融资源来成功。我发现这是不够的。我需要的是更明确的目标,更好的标准,最重要的是,更有效的技术,让我能够达成这些目标。整个经验给我的教训是等孩子12岁才开始,已经晚了12年。课外项目不过是给积重难返的结构问题贴一个创可贴,而那正是公立教育失败的地方。所以在2000年,我和我所知道的最伟大的教育家——名为诺曼·阿特金斯的年轻人一起在Bedford Stuyvesant为男生们开办了优秀特许学校。我们制定了明确的目标,聘用最好的老师,他们有最出色的技能,让我们学校成为城中最棒的。虽说那是个远大的志向,去年即2008年,优秀特许学校在纽约543所公立学校任何三年级和四年级学生中,阅读和数学能力都独占鳌头,而我们学校可有98%的非洲裔美籍男生。若非我15年前失败过,我们可永远别指望能做到这些。

So here is the point: you are going to meet the dragon of failure in your life. You may not get into the school you want or you may get kicked out of the school you are in. You may get your heart broken by the girl of your dreams or God forbid, get into an accident beyond your control. But the point is that everything happens for a reason. At the time it may not be clear. And certainly the pain and the shame are going to be overwhelming and devastating. But just as sure as the sun comes up, there will come a time on the next day or the next week or the next year, when you will grab that sword and point it at that dragon and tell him, “Be gone, dragon. Tarry with me and I will cut your head off. For I must find the destination God and life hold in store for me!” Young men of Buckley, good luck on your journey…..

Paul Tudor Jones II Interview 
and Our Comments
Paul Tudor Jones is a legendary commodity trader.  Below is his interview and our comments.

Interview with Paul Tudor Jones II 
by Joel Ramin
January 13, 2000

Paul Tudor Jones II is the president and founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, and was featured in Jack D. Schwagers classic "Market Wizards". This is an edited transcript from the interview, which was held at Paul Jones's office in Greenwich, Connecticut on January 13, 2000. 

Q: Can you briefly describe your background? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I went to high school at Memphis University school. My father went to Virginia Law School so he steered me to the University of Virginia. I went to Virginia from 1972 to 1976, majored in economics and had a great time. I really loved UVa. I graduated and went to work for Eli Tullis who was a Virginia graduate from New Orleans. He was a cotton speculator, maybe the biggest cotton speculator, and he gave me a job on the former New York cotton exchange and I began literally two weeks after I graduated from school. That's how I got into the futures markets. 

Q: What sparked your original interest in trading? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I went to New York and saw the floor of the commodities exchange and there was such an energy level there and so much excitement that I knew that was the place for me. I've always liked act
ion and the exchange seemed like a perfect home for me. 

Q: When did you decide you wanted to run a fund? 

Paul Tudor Jones: In 1976 I started working on the floor as a clerk and then I became a broker for E.F. Hutton. In 1980 I went strictly on my own as what they called a local and did that for about two and a half years and had two and a half wonderfully 

profitable years, but I really got bored. I applied to Harvard Business School, got accepted and was about to go. I literally was packed up to go and then I thought, 'this is crazy', because for what I'm doing here, they're not going to teach me anything. This skill set is not something that they teach in business school. So I didn't go, I stayed, but I was really bored because there wasn't the personal interaction that was something that I craved and having colleagues and being in a clean atmosphere and that was when I started my fund. All through growing up I've been involved in team sports and fraternities and in school I was involved in a whole variety of activities all of which were team oriented and when I was on my own I was printing money every month, but I wasn't getting the psychic satisfaction from it 

Q: How would you describe your general investment philosophy? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think I am the single most conservative investor on earth in the sense that I absolutely hate losing money. My grandfather told me at a very early age that you are on
ly worth what you can write a check for tomorrow, so the concept of having my net worth tied up in a stock a la Bill Gates, though God almighty it would be a great problem to have, it would be something that's just anathema to me and that's one reason that I've always liked the futures market so much, because you can generally get liquid and be in cash in literally the space of a few minutes. So that always appealed to me because I could always be liquid very quickly if I wanted to. I'd say that my investment philosophy is that I don't take a lot of risk, I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don't ever let them get into your pocket - that means there's no reason to leverage substantially. There's no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities. 

Q: How do you measure your performance? 

Paul Tudor Jones: You've got to look at good traders historically. If a trader can on average annually deliver two to three times their worst draw down, then that's a very good track record, and I'd say that that's what I try to do. If I thought that for the funds that I managed that 10% would be the worst that I would tolerate in a given year then hopefully I'd annualize two or three times that and that's probably what I've done. Maybe a little below that in the '90's and a little above that in the '80's. 

Q: What's your competitive advantage as a trader? 

Paul Tudor Jones: The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge. Because I think there are certain situations where you can absolutely understand what motivates every buyer and seller and have a pretty good picture of what's going to happen. And it just requires an enormous amount of grunt work and dedication to finding all possible bits of information. 

You pick an instrument and there's whole variety of benchmarks, things that you look at when trading a particular instrument whether it's a stock or a commodity or a bond. There's a fundamental information set that you acquire with regard to each particular asset class and then you overlay a whole host of technical indicators and that's how you make a decision. It doesn't make any difference whether it's pork bellies or Yahoo. At the end of the day, it's all the same. You need to understand what factors you need to have at your disposal to develop a core competency to make a legitimate investment decision in that particular asset class. And then at the end of the day, the most imp
ortant thing is how good are you at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control. 

Q: Can you give an example? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Certainly. The on
e on a percentage basis that's been the most profitable for me was the crash of 1987. There was a tremendous embedded derivatives accident waiting to happen in the crash of '87 because there was something in the market that time called portfolio insurance that essentially meant that when stocks started to go down it was going to create more selling because the people who had written these derivatives would be forced to sell on every down-tick. So it was a situation where you knew that if you ever got to a point where the market started to go down that the selling would actually cascade instead of dry up because of the measure of these derivative instruments that had been written. And in the crash of '87 you had an overvalued market and you also finally had a situation where every down-tick would create more selling and I think I understood the dynamics of that. The crash was something that was imminently forecastable to somebody that understood the measure of derivatives and how large they had grown in such a relatively short period of time and the impact that it would have on a relatively unknowing and na'e market. And the same exact thing happened in 1990 in Japan. 

Q: So what is your opinion of the US equity markets now? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Clearly there are parts of the US equity markets that we've never seen anything like it anywhere in modern times in terms of valuation. The question is what's the trigger event that gets you to mean revert and whereas you had specific derivative inspired events in 1987, I don't see that now. So how long can these levels of overvaluation persist? I would think rather than seeing any type of really sharp break, what you might see prospectively is something that looks a lot more like '68 to '73 did where you had big rolling corrections and rotations and a market that doesn't really make any upside progress but with a lot of volatility that traverses big ranges. 

Q: Do you have any specific catalysts that you're looking for? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think you're finally getting interest rates at a level where they're extraordinarily negative for equities. You look at every bear market and they've always basically occurred because of an up-tick in inflation and an up-tick in interest rates. We're definitely at a point where rates are high enough where they're going to have a big impact on equities. When you look at the volatility we've had in the past month in the NASDAQ for instance, every time I've seen volatility like that, I don't care what the market was, whether it was soybeans in '76 or '83 or whether it was silver at the top in 1980 or whether it was some of the biotech stocks at the top earlier in the '90's, when you get that kind of volatility you know that generally that's associated with a top. The best you can hope for if you're long is to look at some type of significant long term sideways act
ion where the markets consolidate before moving higher or generally speaking allow that those have done their thing and we will have topped for years and years to come. I'm probably more of a subscriber to the latter theory. 

Q: How big was your fund when you started and how much money does your company have under management now? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Right now we have about five or six billion dollars under the management of several large traders including myself. Back in '83 we started with $300,000. 

Q: Do you like managing so much more money? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I don't like managing it at all. The smaller it is the greater you can do because there is no slippage and greater liquidity. 

Q: It was widely published that in 1987 you reportedly made between $80 million and $100 million ? more than anybody on Wall Street. How did that make you feel? 

Paul Tudor Jones: At the time, I was young enough to enjoy that. I was in my early 30's and that was exciting, but the older you get you realize that at the end of the day the amount of money you have has absolutely zero bearing on how you feel about yourself and the quality of your life. It becomes a very shallow measure of a person's worth. I have a great wife and four great kids now and that would be my crowning achievement. 

Q: Is there more risk in the stock market now than ever before? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Certainly in the stock market, there are some stocks with valuation levels that mankind has never seen before so on
e would think that they have a lot more risk. It's funny, but I'm actually not the best person to ask about the stock market. You see, our company is just a group of 280 individuals, all of us are basically united under one purpose, and everybody has pretty much the same MO, young professionals with kids, generally very conservative. Really all my capital is tied up in this company, so on the one hand I think to myself my gosh the concept of owning stocks is anathema to me because of the fact that I always want to be liquid, so a lot of our investments typically are things with a very short lifespan like derivatives, not owning stocks. So as far as risk in the stock market, that's not my core competency, so I'm really not a great person to ask. 

Q: Can you comment on the life of your fund's returns since you began investing? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Our returns have definitely flattened out since the '80's. But if you look at my risk adjusted returns, they're very similar and I'm probably the same exact trader as I was 15 years ago. What's different has been my own personal appetite for risk and volatility. I think that probably happens with a lot of people as they get older. Everything is a function of leverage, how much of a draw down are you willing to tolerate, how much leverage do you want to put on. When I was younger, I had much greater draw downs, much greater draw down frequency, much greater leverage. So again, I'm probably the exact same trader as I was 15 years ago, it's just less risk, less return. 

There are exceptions to the rule, but the normal progression of most traders that I've seen is that the older they get something happens. Sometimes they get more successful and therefore they take less risk. That's something that as a company we literally sit and work with. That's certainly something that I've had to come to grips with in particular over the past 12 to 18 months. You have to actively manage against your natural tendency to become more conservative. You do that because all of a sudden you become successful and don't want to lose what you have and/or in my case you get married and have children and naturally, consciously or subconsciously, you become more conservative. If there's on
e thing in our company that we probably will spend more time working on in the year 2000 than we ever spent historically, it's that as a group we all came to be overly conservative and we need to leverage up more within our company and I'm probably the worst offender. So now I have a whole variety of portfolio measures that I sit down with every afternoon, to try to hit some benchmark leverage measures to make sure I deliver what my investors unequivocally deserve in terms of the opportunity to get the kinds of returns they're used to. 

Q: What are some perceptions and priorities of yours that have changed over the years? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think there's a natural progression that everyone goes through. The older you get, the more you'll realize that a quality life is on
e that has an extraordinary balance in it. The guy that's working at 75 years of age and still running a company, that doesn't have any appeal to me because I think his life is out of balance. If the only thing that he can find that's that satisfying to him is being involved in a profession with something, I think you've got to have more balance. In my 20's all I cared about was being financially successful and today I look to strive for a more balanced life. In that context though, when I come to work I'm as competitive as anybody you'll meet and I clearly look forward to the day when I have the best performance of my peers, the macro hedge funds, for the year, which hopefully will be this year. 

Q: What was the best and worst year you ever had? 

Paul Tudor Jones: The worst year was probably 1993. I on
ly returned 1.6%. Never had a down year. And my best years, well I fortunately cut my teeth in two great bear markets, the '87 bear market and the 1990 Japan bear market and there's no question that that's biased me a bit. I returned about 200% in 1987 and 80% or 90% in 1990. I worked 80 hours a week and clearly I'm not doing that without trying to be number one. All my friends are in the business, and I wish them all well, but everybody's got a competitive spirit.
Q: Are you more naturally bearish or bullish? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Bearish, I think. I would have difficulty asking anyone to pay 10 or 20 times earnings for my earnings capability for the rest of my life. I would think you're crazy to do that even though it might be a great deal, so the concept of paying on
e-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE's? If it's going up you're supposed to be long it. But there's no question that it's just easier for me to leverage with some degree of conviction the short side of some markets. 

Q: When are you going to retire? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I have a son that just turned three and I would unequivocally continue to trade until he went to college. At that point I think I'd probably be airborne hunting and fishing all over the globe every day in my life. I don't even necessarily need to be hunting and fishing, I just love to be out doors. 

Q: What do you think is going to happen to your company when you do retire? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I could get run over by a truck tomorrow morning and the company would go on and wouldn't miss a beat. We've got the best business model there is on the street for doing this. 

Q: Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think the biggest issue facing America, unequivocally, is campaign finance reform. When you sit down and talk about gun control or charter schools or whatever, all those issues, it's impossible to have politicians actually vote their conscience when they're all unequivocally conflicted because of the fund raising necessities they have and the amount of money they take. Until you have campaign finance reform and term limits, we're dealing with a whole group of elected officials who are incapable of making any independent and honest decisions. So McCain, Bradley, I'll vote for either on
e of them. I'll vote for any politician that's going to sign the dotted line to get the money lenders out of the temple. I think that if you look at the 13,000 registered lobbyists in Washington, what chance do you or I have of having a voice in government unless you're willing to write a big check? Because that's what all those guys are doing. I'll tell you from my conservation battles down in Florida. The entire sugar industry in Florida, which is destroying the Everglades, they have one business. Their business is not growing sugar. Their business is paying off every politician that they can see simply so that they can continue with a subsidy that does nothing but take money out of every Americans pocket and put it in theirs. 

Q: You were close to getting that legislation to go your way, weren't you? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Right. And they spent forty some-odd-million dollars to fight us. Forty million dollars that they probably got through some extraordinarily inequitable and unfair and offensive subsidy that they have done an excellent job of paying off every politician in Congress for. Campaign finance for me is the key issue. It's funny, McCain is a great example. He's probably way too conservative for me, but I'd vote for the guy in a heart beat because there's no doubt in my mind that he more so than anyone would probably go in and attack the vested interests there in Washington that completely distort and destroy our political process. 

Q: Would you ever run for political office? 

Paul Tudor Jones: No. I've got a family and kids and I couldn't be away from them that much. 

Q: Let's play a word association game. I'll say a word and you say whatever comes to mind. 

Q: Technical analysis 

Paul Tudor Jones: Made well over half the money that I've made in my lifetime. 

Q: Fundamental Analysis 

Paul Tudor Jones: Made the rest. 

Q: Are you better at on
e or the other? 

Paul Tudor Jones: Probably technical analysis. 

Q: Market efficiency 

Paul Tudor Jones: No such thing. 

Q: Long Term Capital Management 

Paul Tudor Jones: Icarus. 

Q: Black Monday 

Paul Tudor Jones: It was like watching a natural disaster from the sidelines. I was intimately involved in that day, but the macro implications of what was happening overwhelmed any personal considerations that I had. 

Q: Warren Buffet 

Paul Tudor Jones: His aversion to paying taxes made him a great investor. 

Q: Kids 

Paul Tudor Jones: The most fun you'll ever have. 

Q: Environment 

Paul Tudor Jones: The second most fun you'll ever have. 

Q: The Internet 

Paul Tudor Jones: A wonderful delivery mechanism that's overhyped. 

Q: Day Traders 

Paul Tudor Jones: 95% losers. 

Q: The University of Virginia 

Paul Tudor Jones: The most balanced education a person can receive and I'm not talking about just academic education, but all the other touch points that go with that; character building, ethics, exposure, etc? 

Q: Wall Street 

Paul Tudor Jones: The last great frontier. I went there with nothing. You can go there with nothing and do whatever you want to do. 

Q: What do you think you'll be most remembered for? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I don't think anybody will remember me. 

Q: What do you hope you'll be remembered for? 

Paul Tudor Jones: I think Teddy Roosevelt's greatest legacy is the national parks system, so on a micro level anything that I could do to protect natural resources, I think, would be the best legacy that I could leave my kids. 

Q: If you were writing a story about Paul Tudor Jones, what on
e question would you ask him? 

Paul Tudor Jones: If you could do on
e thing differently, what would you do? 

Q: And what's the answer? 

Paul Tudor Jones: When you look at the wealth creation in the Internet in the past decade, it would have required me to literally completely change my stripes and move over in a different world from macro analysis and trading a whole variety of instruments to going into building a business in a brave new world in the Internet. So I look back and I see the wealth creation that we've seen the past three years of which we've fortunately, derivatively been able to enjoy here at Tudor because we have our whole Boston office that's dedicated towards private equity and that did an extraordinary job last year. But I guess, everyone that works on Wall Street today, particularly given our industry reliance on computers, knowing that that entire explosion occurred right under your nose, everyone has got to say, 'My gosh, what if eight or 10 years ago I had made a decision to completely focus and be in the middle of technology? Instead of sitting in front of a screen, what if I had gotten on a plane and gone and played the venture capital game out in California every day'? I'd argue that many of the people that benefited from it probably were in the right place at the right time and got very fortunate and there probably aren't but a handful of people that actually had the vision to go do it and the on
es that actually did, I take my hat off to them and applaud. But I've always said, I'd just as soon be lucky as good and there are a whole variety of people that were just in the right place at the right time who did extraordinarily well and I'm happy for them. But I always do play the 'what if' game. What if you'd taken your full repertoire of talents and skills and been involved in that from day one? Could you have been Bill Gates or could you have been whatever empire builder there was?



保罗都铎琼斯二世是总统和都铎投资公司的创始人,并在杰克D. Schwagers特色经典的“市场奇才”。这是从采访编辑的记录,这是保罗琼斯举行在康涅狄格州格林威治办公室2000年1月13日。 






保罗都铎琼斯:1976年我开始在为文楼的工作,然后我成为了赫顿经纪人。 1980年,我继续我自己的严格的,他们在这个地方,没有说的两年半内,有两个半奇妙 








你选择的工具,而有各式各样的基准,事情,你在交易时的特殊乐器无论是股票或商品或债券看看。有一个基本的信息集,您就获得每个特定的资产类别,然后覆盖了一大堆技术指标,这就是你如何作出决定。它没有什么差别无论是猪肚或雅虎。在一天结束时,都一样。您需要了解哪些因素您需要在您的处置要发展的核心竞争力,使在该特定资产类别的合法投资的决定。然后在一天结束时,最重要的是如何在良好的风险控制你。 95任何伟大的百分之交易将是风险控制。 








保罗都铎琼斯:现在,我们有五,六亿美元下包括我自己在内几个大型交易商的管理。早在'83,我们开始与$ 300,000。 



问:这是广为公布,在1987年你报介乎800万至1 200万人?超过华尔街的人。这是怎么让你感觉? 




















保罗都铎琼斯:是的。他们花了约40多万美元,帮助我们。 4000万美元,他们可能通过一些非常不公平和不公平补贴和进攻,他们做了一个回报每一个政治家在国会中的出色工作得到。运动对我来说,金融是关键问题。这很有趣,麦凯恩是一个很好的例子。他可能太保守了我,但我会投赞成票的心的家伙打败,因为没有我毫不怀疑,他比任何人都更何况很可能会在和华盛顿的袭击既得利益那里,完全歪曲和破坏我们的政治进程。 





































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